Friday, May 25, 2007
¿Me sacare el melate?
La probabilidad de sacarse el melate es baja muy baja. Lo cual se comprueba con las bellas bolsas garantizadas que se acumulan. Para ello hice el pequeño ejercicio de calcular la probabilidad.
Primer se calculan las combinaciones posibles de 6 números tomados de n conjunto de 51 números.
> a:=51!/((51-6)!*6!); a := 18009460
1
b := --------
18009460
Expresado como decimal:Después se calculan las probabilidades de sacar el número ganador.
Expresado como fracción:
b:=1/a;1
b := --------
18009460
c:=0.00000005552637336155553803389996;
Por lo tanto cada vez que compre su melate, no lo haga con la intención de enriquecerse, sino de ayudar.
Como hablar de probabilidades así nomas no es nada ilustrativo, les dejo las siguientes comparaciones.
La probabilidad de morir porque «te parta un rayo» es de 1 entre 4,3 millones en un año concreto, que equivale más o menos a 1 entre 56.000 a lo largo de toda una vida. Comparativamente, es más probable que te caiga un rayo a morir a causa de un ataque de una serpiente venenosa, cuya probabilidad es 1 entre 90 millones, equivalente a 1 entre 1,2 millones a lo largo de toda una vida. ¿La probabilidad de morir en avión? 1 entre 5.000 durante toda una vida, mucho menor que siendo pasajero en un coche (1 entre 230) aunque mayor que como pasajero de autobús (1 entre 86.000).
Como hablar de probabilidades así nomas no es nada ilustrativo, les dejo las siguientes comparaciones.
La probabilidad de morir porque «te parta un rayo» es de 1 entre 4,3 millones en un año concreto, que equivale más o menos a 1 entre 56.000 a lo largo de toda una vida. Comparativamente, es más probable que te caiga un rayo a morir a causa de un ataque de una serpiente venenosa, cuya probabilidad es 1 entre 90 millones, equivalente a 1 entre 1,2 millones a lo largo de toda una vida. ¿La probabilidad de morir en avión? 1 entre 5.000 durante toda una vida, mucho menor que siendo pasajero en un coche (1 entre 230) aunque mayor que como pasajero de autobús (1 entre 86.000).
Odds of Death Due to Injury, United States, 2003
Type of Accident or Manner of Injury | Deaths | One Year Odds | Lifetime Odds | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All External Causes of Mortality, V01-Y89, *U01, *U03 | 166,857 | 1,743 | 22 | ||||
Deaths Due to Unintentional (Accidental) Injuries, V01-X59, Y85-Y86 | 109,277 | 2,662 | 34 | ||||
Transport Accidents, V01-V99, Y85 | 48,071 | 6,050 | 78 | ||||
Motor-Vehicle Accidents, V02-V04, V09.0, V12-V14, V19.0-V19.2, V19.4-V19.6, V20-V79, V80.3-V80.5, V81.0-V81.1, V82.0-V82.1, V83-V86, V87.0-V87.8, V88.0-V88.8, V89.0, V89.2 | 44,757 | 6,498 | 84 | ||||
Pedestrian, V01-V09 | 5,991 | 48,548 | 626 | ||||
Pedalcyclist, V10-V19 | 762 | 381,693 | 4,919 | ||||
Motorcycle rider, V20-V29 | 3,676 | 79,121 | 1,020 | ||||
Occupant of three-wheeled motor vehicle, V30-V39 | 13 | 22,373,077 | 288,313 | ||||
Car occupant, V40-V49 | 15,797 | 18,412 | 237 | ||||
Occupant of pick-up truck or van, V50-V59 | 4,163 | 69,865 | 900 | ||||
Occupant of heavy transport vehicle, V60-V69 | 442 | 658,032 | 8,480 | ||||
Bus occupant, V70-V79 | 36 | 8,079,167 | 104,113 | ||||
Animal rider or occupant of animal-drawn vehicle, V80 | 101 | 2,879,703 | 37,110 | ||||
Occupant of railway train or railway vehicle, V81 | 24 | 12,118,750 | 156,169 | ||||
Occupant of streetcar, V82 | 2 | 145,425,003 | 1,874,034 | ||||
Other and unspecified land transport accidents, V83-V89 | 15,107 | 19,253 | 248 | ||||
Occupant of special industrial vehicle, V83 | 12 | 24,237,500 | 312,339 | ||||
Occupant of special agricultural vehicle, V84 | 175 | 1,662,000 | 21,418 | ||||
Occupant of special construction vehicle, V85 | 20 | 14,542,500 | 187,403 | ||||
Occupant of all-terrain or other off-road motor vehicle, V86 | 906 | 321,026 | 4,137 | ||||
Other and unspecified person, V87-V89 | 13,994 | 20,784 | 268 | ||||
Water transport accidents, V90-V94 | 573 | 507,592 | 6,541 | ||||
Drowning, V90, V92 | 412 | 705,947 | 9,097 | ||||
Other and unspecified injuries, V91, V93-V94 | 161 | 1,806,522 | 23,280 | ||||
Air and space transport accidents, V95-V97 | 742 | 391,981 | 5,051 | ||||
Other and unspecified transport accidents and sequelae, V98-V99, Y85 | 642 | 453,037 | 5,838 | ||||
Other specified transport accidents, V98 | 2 | 145,425,003 | 1,874,034 | ||||
Unspecified transport accident, V99 | 0 | --- | --- | ||||
Nontransport Unintentional (Accidental) Injuries, W00-X59, Y86 | 61,206 | 4,752 | 61 | ||||
Falls, W00-W19 | 17,229 | 16,881 | 218 | ||||
Fall on same level from slipping, tripping, and stumbling, W01 | 597 | 487,186 | 6,278 | ||||
Other fall on same level, W00, W02-W03, W18 | 3,896 | 74,653 | 962 | ||||
Fall involving bed, chair, other furniture, W06-W08 | 838 | 347,076 | 4,473 | ||||
Fall on and from stairs and steps, W10 | 1,588 | 183,155 | 2,360 | ||||
Fall on and from ladder or scaffolding, W11-W12 | 417 | 697,482 | 8,988 | ||||
Fall from out of or through building or structure, W13 | 600 | 484,750 | 6,247 | ||||
Other fall from one level to another, W09, W14-W17 | 701 | 414,907 | 5,347 | ||||
Other and unspecified fall, W04-W05, W19 | 8,592 | 33,851 | 436 | ||||
Exposure to inanimate mechanical forces, W20-W49 | 2,658 | 109,424 | 1,410 | ||||
Struck by or striking against object, W20-W22 | 809 | 359,518 | 4,633 | ||||
Caught between objects, W23 | 136 | 2,138,603 | 27,559 | ||||
Contact with machinery, W24, W30-W31 | 640 | 454,453 | 5,856 | ||||
Contact with sharp objects, W25-W29 | 99 | 2,937,879 | 37,859 | ||||
Firearms discharge, W32-W34 | 730 | 398,425 | 5,134 | ||||
Explosion and rupture of pressurized devices, W35-W38 | 30 | 9,695,000 | 124,936 | ||||
Fireworks discharge, W39 | 11 | 26,440,910 | 340,733 | ||||
Explosion of other materials, W40 | 147 | 1,978,571 | 25,497 | ||||
Foreign body entering through skin or natural orifice, W44-W45 | 22 | 13,220,455 | 170,367 | ||||
Other and unspecified inanimate mechanical forces, W41-W43, W49 | 34 | 8,554,412 | 110,237 | ||||
Exposure to animate mechanical forces, W50-W64 | 171 | 1,700,877 | 21,919 | ||||
Struck by or against another person, W50-W52 | 39 | 7,457,692 | 96,104 | ||||
Bitten or struck by dog, W54 | 32 | 9,089,063 | 117,127 | ||||
Bitten or struck by other mammals, W53, W55 | 78 | 3,728,846 | 48,052 | ||||
Bitten or stung by nonvenomous insect and other arthropods, W57 | 12 | 24,237,500 | 312,339 | ||||
Bitten or crushed by other reptiles, W59 | 0 | --- | --- | ||||
Other and unspecified animate mechanical forces, W56, W58, W60, W64 | 10 | 29,085,001 | 374,807 | ||||
Accidental drowning and submersion, W65-W74 | 3,306 | 87,976 | 1,134 | ||||
Drowning and submersion while in or falling into bath-tub, W65-W66 | 332 | 876,054 | 11,289 | ||||
Drowning and submersion while in or falling into swimming-pool, W67-W68 | 515 | 564,757 | 7,278 | ||||
Drowning and submersion while in or falling into natural water, W69-W70 | 1,225 | 237,429 | 3,060 | ||||
Other and unspecified drowning and submersion, W73-W74 | 1,234 | 235,697 | 3,037 | ||||
Other accidental threats to breathing, W75-W84 | 5,579 | 52,133 | 672 | ||||
Accidental suffocation and strangulation in bed, W75 | 497 | 585,211 | 7,541 | ||||
Other accidental hanging and strangulation, W76 | 277 | 1,050,000 | 13,531 | ||||
Threat to breathing due to cave-in, falling earth and other substances, W77 | 46 | 6,322,826 | 81,480 | ||||
Inhalation of gastric contents, W78 | 393 | 740,076 | 9,537 | ||||
Inhalation and ingestion of food causing obstruction of respiratory tract, W79 | 875 | 332,400 | 4,284 | ||||
Inhalation and ingestion of other objects causing obstruction of respiratory tract, W80 | 3,004 | 96,821 | 1,248 | ||||
Confined to or trapped in a low-oxygen environment, W81 | 16 | 18,178,125 | 234,254 | ||||
Other and unspecified threats to breathing, W83-W84 | 471 | 617,516 | 7,958 | ||||
Exposure to electric current, radiation, temperature, and pressure, W85-W99 | 396 | 734,470 | 9,465 | ||||
Electric transmission lines, W85 | 96 | 3,029,688 | 39,042 | ||||
Other and unspecified electric current, W86-W87 | 280 | 1,038,750 | 13,386 | ||||
Radiation, W88-W91 | 0 | --- | --- | ||||
Excessive heat or cold of man-made origin, W92-W93 | 10 | 29,085,001 | 374,807 | ||||
High and low air pressure and changes in air pressure, W94 | 10 | 29,085,001 | 374,807 | ||||
Other and unspecified man-made environmental factors, W99 | 0 | --- | --- | ||||
Exposure to smoke, fire and flames, X00-X09 | 3,369 | 86,331 | 1,113 | ||||
Uncontrolled fire in building or structure, X00 | 2,761 | 105,342 | 1,358 | ||||
Uncontrolled fire not in building or structure, X01 | 57 | 5,102,632 | 65,756 | ||||
Controlled fire in building or structure, X02 | 35 | 8,310,000 | 107,088 | ||||
Controlled fire not in building or structure, X03 | 39 | 7,457,692 | 96,104 | ||||
Ignition of highly flammable material, X04 | 55 | 5,288,182 | 68,147 | ||||
Ignition or melting of nightwear, X05 | 3 | 96,950,002 | 1,249,356 | ||||
Ignition or melting of other clothing and apparel, X06 | 104 | 2,796,635 | 36,039 | ||||
Other and unspecified smoke fire and flames, X08-X09 | 315 | 923,333 | 11,899 | ||||
Contact with heat and hot substances, X10-X19 | 88 | 3,305,114 | 42,592 | ||||
Contact with hot tap-water, X11 | 26 | 11,186,539 | 144,156 | ||||
Other and unspecified heat and hot substances, X10, X12-X19 | 62 | 4,691,129 | 60,453 | ||||
Contact with venomous animals and plants, X20-X29 | 94 | 3,094,149 | 39,873 | ||||
Contact with venomous snakes and lizards, X20 | 2 | 145,425,003 | 1,874,034 | ||||
Contact with venomous spiders, X21 | 8 | 36,356,251 | 468,508 | ||||
Contact with hornets, wasps and bees, X23 | 66 | 4,406,818 | 56,789 | ||||
Contact with other and unspecified venomous animal or plant, X22, X24-X29 | 18 | 16,158,334 | 208,226 | ||||
Exposure to forces of nature, X30-X39 | 1,140 | 255,132 | 3,288 | ||||
Exposure to excessive natural heat, X30 | 273 | 1,065,385 | 13,729 | ||||
Exposure to excessive natural cold, X31 | 620 | 469,113 | 6,045 | ||||
Lightning, X33 | 47 | 6,188,298 | 79,746 | ||||
Earthquake and other earth movements, X34-X36 | 32 | 9,089,063 | 117,127 | ||||
Cataclysmic storm, X37 | 75 | 3,878,000 | 49,974 | ||||
Flood, X38 | 26 | 11,186,539 | 144,156 | ||||
Exposure to other and unspecified forces of nature, X32, X39 | 67 | 4,341,045 | 55,941 | ||||
Accidental poisoning by and exposure to noxious substances, X40-X49 | 19,457 | 14,948 | 193 | ||||
Nonopioid analgesics, antipyretics, and antirheumatics, X40 | 210 | 1,385,000 | 17,848 | ||||
Antiepileptic, sedative-hypnotic, antiparkinsonism, and psychotropic drugs n.e.c., X41 | 1,205 | 241,369 | 3,110 | ||||
Narcotics and psychodysleptics [hallucinogens] n.e.c., X42 | 9,231 | 31,508 | 406 | ||||
Other and unspecified drugs, medicaments, and biologicals, X43-X44 | 7,648 | 38,030 | 490 | ||||
Alcohol, X45 | 373 | 779,759 | 10,048 | ||||
Gases and vapours, X46-X47 | 690 | 421,522 | 5,432 | ||||
Other and unspecified chemicals and noxious substances, X48-X49 | 100 | 2,908,500 | 37,481 | ||||
Overexertion, travel and privation, X50-X57 | 48 | 6,059,375 | 78,085 | ||||
Accidental exposure to other and unspecified factors and sequelae, X58-X59, Y86 | 7,671 | 37,916 | 489 | ||||
Intentional self-harm, X60-X84, Y87.0, *U03 | 31,484 | 9,238 | 119 | ||||
Intentional self-poisoning, X60-X69 | 5,462 | 53,250 | 686 | ||||
Intentional self-harm by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation, X70 | 6,635 | 43,836 | 565 | ||||
Intentional self-harm by firearm, X72-X74 | 16,907 | 17,203 | 222 | ||||
Other and unspecified means and sequelae, X71, X75-X84, Y87.0, *U03 | 2,480 | 117,278 | 1,511 | ||||
Assault, X85-Y09, Y87.1, *U01 | 17,732 | 16,403 | 211 | ||||
Assault by firearm, X93-X95 | 11,920 | 24,400 | 314 | ||||
Assault by sharp object, X99 | 2,049 | 141,947 | 1,829 | ||||
Other and unspecified means and sequelae, X85-X92, X96-X98, Y00-Y09, Y87.1, *U01 | 3,763 | 77,292 | 996 | ||||
Event of undetermined intent, Y10-Y34, Y87.2, Y89.9 | 5,072 | 57,344 | 739 | ||||
Poisoning, Y10-Y19 | 3,700 | 78,608 | 1,013 | ||||
Hanging, strangulation, and suffocation, Y20 | 108 | 2,693,056 | 34,704 | ||||
Drowning and submersion, Y21 | 215 | 1,352,791 | 17,433 | ||||
Firearm discharge, Y22-Y24 | 232 | 1,253,664 | 16,155 | ||||
Exposure to smoke, fire, and flames, Y26 | 100 | 2,908,500 | 37,481 | ||||
Falling, jumping, or pushed from a high place, Y30 | 77 | 3,777,273 | 48,676 | ||||
Other and unspecified means and sequelae, Y25, Y27-Y29, Y31-Y34,Y87.2, Y89.9 | 640 | 454,453 | 5,856 | ||||
Legal intervention, Y35, Y89.0 | 423 | 687,589 | 8,861 | ||||
Legal intervention involving firearm discharge, Y35.0 | 347 | 838,184 | 10,801 | ||||
Legal execution, Y35.5 | 60 | 4,847,500 | 62,468 | ||||
Other and unspecified means and sequelae, Y35.1-Y35.4, Y35.6-Y35.7, Y89.0 | 16 | 18,178,125 | 234,254 | ||||
Operations of war and sequelae, Y36, Y89.1 | 14 | 20,775,000 | 267,719 | ||||
Complications of medical and surgical care and sequelae, Y40-Y84, Y88.0-Y88.3 | |||||||
Lo chusco:
Buscando por la red llegue a un artículo de un periodista que lanza cifras y probabilidades y operaciones matematicas. Acebera que es muy dicifil sacarse un premio de esos de televisa, lo cual le creo. Pero lo interesante es como un hombre que no es de números entra a ese maravilloso mundo, la caga. A menos de que el señor sea un matemático brillante que este mas allá de mi comprensión, la caga. Le dedique un rato a tratar de entender sus operaciones y ellas no arrojan nada, pero nada lógico. Lo que esta en negrillas es lo que menciono en este párrafo.
"Las probabilidades para ganar el premio mayor en cualquiera de los concursos que promueve la televisión abierta son mucho menores que para ganar el premio mayor de la Lotería Nacional (uno en 50 mil), pues aun bajo el supuesto de que las llamadas a la televisora sean inferiores a esa cifra, suele haber otro filtro (el concurso al aire, donde predomina el azar) que reduce aún más las posibilidades. En el caso del millón de pesos que ofreció Televisa para la Copa América, si el número de llamadas superaba las ocho mil, las probabilidades de ganar eran inferiores a las de ganar en Melate (7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 probabilidades entre ocho mil x 13 x 12 x 11 x 10 x 9 x 8 x 7; es decir, 5,040/ 69,189,120,000, aproximadamente un chance en 14 millones)."(sic)
Buscando por la red llegue a un artículo de un periodista que lanza cifras y probabilidades y operaciones matematicas. Acebera que es muy dicifil sacarse un premio de esos de televisa, lo cual le creo. Pero lo interesante es como un hombre que no es de números entra a ese maravilloso mundo, la caga. A menos de que el señor sea un matemático brillante que este mas allá de mi comprensión, la caga. Le dedique un rato a tratar de entender sus operaciones y ellas no arrojan nada, pero nada lógico. Lo que esta en negrillas es lo que menciono en este párrafo.
"Las probabilidades para ganar el premio mayor en cualquiera de los concursos que promueve la televisión abierta son mucho menores que para ganar el premio mayor de la Lotería Nacional (uno en 50 mil), pues aun bajo el supuesto de que las llamadas a la televisora sean inferiores a esa cifra, suele haber otro filtro (el concurso al aire, donde predomina el azar) que reduce aún más las posibilidades. En el caso del millón de pesos que ofreció Televisa para la Copa América, si el número de llamadas superaba las ocho mil, las probabilidades de ganar eran inferiores a las de ganar en Melate (7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 probabilidades entre ocho mil x 13 x 12 x 11 x 10 x 9 x 8 x 7; es decir, 5,040/ 69,189,120,000, aproximadamente un chance en 14 millones)."(sic)
http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm
http://www.microsiervos.com/archivo/mundoreal/probabilidades-morir.html
Labels: Probabilidades
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