Friday, May 25, 2007

¿Me sacare el melate?

La probabilidad de sacarse el melate es baja muy baja. Lo cual se comprueba con las bellas bolsas garantizadas que se acumulan. Para ello hice el pequeño ejercicio de calcular la probabilidad.

Primer se calculan las combinaciones posibles de 6 números tomados de n conjunto de 51 números.
> a:=51!/((51-6)!*6!); a := 18009460

Después se calculan las probabilidades de sacar el número ganador.

Expresado como fracción:
b:=1/a;
1
b := --------
18009460
Expresado como decimal:
c:=0.00000005552637336155553803389996;

Por lo tanto cada vez que compre su melate, no lo haga con la intención de enriquecerse, sino de ayudar.

Como hablar de probabilidades así nomas no es nada ilustrativo, les dejo las siguientes comparaciones.

La probabilidad de morir porque «te parta un rayo» es de 1 entre 4,3 millones en un año concreto, que equivale más o menos a 1 entre 56.000 a lo largo de toda una vida. Comparativamente, es más probable que te caiga un rayo a morir a causa de un ataque de una serpiente venenosa, cuya probabilidad es 1 entre 90 millones, equivalente a 1 entre 1,2 millones a lo largo de toda una vida. ¿La probabilidad de morir en avión? 1 entre 5.000 durante toda una vida, mucho menor que siendo pasajero en un coche (1 entre 230) aunque mayor que como pasajero de autobús (1 entre 86.000).

Odds of Death Due to Injury, United States, 2003


Type of Accident or Manner of Injury Deaths One Year Odds Lifetime Odds
All External Causes of Mortality, V01-Y89, *U01, *U03
166,857
1,743
22
Deaths Due to Unintentional (Accidental) Injuries, V01-X59, Y85-Y86
109,277
2,662
34

Transport Accidents, V01-V99, Y85
48,071
6,050
78

Motor-Vehicle Accidents, V02-V04, V09.0, V12-V14, V19.0-V19.2, V19.4-V19.6, V20-V79, V80.3-V80.5, V81.0-V81.1, V82.0-V82.1, V83-V86, V87.0-V87.8, V88.0-V88.8, V89.0, V89.2
44,757
6,498
84

Pedestrian, V01-V09
5,991
48,548
626

Pedalcyclist, V10-V19
762
381,693
4,919

Motorcycle rider, V20-V29
3,676
79,121
1,020

Occupant of three-wheeled motor vehicle, V30-V39
13
22,373,077
288,313

Car occupant, V40-V49
15,797
18,412
237

Occupant of pick-up truck or van, V50-V59
4,163
69,865
900

Occupant of heavy transport vehicle, V60-V69
442
658,032
8,480

Bus occupant, V70-V79
36
8,079,167
104,113

Animal rider or occupant of animal-drawn vehicle, V80
101
2,879,703
37,110

Occupant of railway train or railway vehicle, V81
24
12,118,750
156,169

Occupant of streetcar, V82
2
145,425,003
1,874,034

Other and unspecified land transport accidents, V83-V89
15,107
19,253
248

Occupant of special industrial vehicle, V83
12
24,237,500
312,339

Occupant of special agricultural vehicle, V84
175
1,662,000
21,418

Occupant of special construction vehicle, V85
20
14,542,500
187,403

Occupant of all-terrain or other off-road motor vehicle, V86
906
321,026
4,137

Other and unspecified person, V87-V89
13,994
20,784
268

Water transport accidents, V90-V94
573
507,592
6,541

Drowning, V90, V92
412
705,947
9,097

Other and unspecified injuries, V91, V93-V94
161
1,806,522
23,280

Air and space transport accidents, V95-V97
742
391,981
5,051

Other and unspecified transport accidents and sequelae, V98-V99, Y85
642
453,037
5,838

Other specified transport accidents, V98
2
145,425,003
1,874,034

Unspecified transport accident, V99
0
---
---

Nontransport Unintentional (Accidental) Injuries, W00-X59, Y86
61,206
4,752
61

Falls, W00-W19
17,229
16,881
218

Fall on same level from slipping, tripping, and stumbling, W01
597
487,186
6,278

Other fall on same level, W00, W02-W03, W18
3,896
74,653
962

Fall involving bed, chair, other furniture, W06-W08
838
347,076
4,473

Fall on and from stairs and steps, W10
1,588
183,155
2,360

Fall on and from ladder or scaffolding, W11-W12
417
697,482
8,988

Fall from out of or through building or structure, W13
600
484,750
6,247

Other fall from one level to another, W09, W14-W17
701
414,907
5,347

Other and unspecified fall, W04-W05, W19
8,592
33,851
436

Exposure to inanimate mechanical forces, W20-W49
2,658
109,424
1,410

Struck by or striking against object, W20-W22
809
359,518
4,633

Caught between objects, W23
136
2,138,603
27,559

Contact with machinery, W24, W30-W31
640
454,453
5,856

Contact with sharp objects, W25-W29
99
2,937,879
37,859

Firearms discharge, W32-W34
730
398,425
5,134

Explosion and rupture of pressurized devices, W35-W38
30
9,695,000
124,936

Fireworks discharge, W39
11
26,440,910
340,733

Explosion of other materials, W40
147
1,978,571
25,497

Foreign body entering through skin or natural orifice, W44-W45
22
13,220,455
170,367

Other and unspecified inanimate mechanical forces, W41-W43, W49
34
8,554,412
110,237

Exposure to animate mechanical forces, W50-W64
171
1,700,877
21,919

Struck by or against another person, W50-W52
39
7,457,692
96,104

Bitten or struck by dog, W54
32
9,089,063
117,127

Bitten or struck by other mammals, W53, W55
78
3,728,846
48,052

Bitten or stung by nonvenomous insect and other arthropods, W57
12
24,237,500
312,339

Bitten or crushed by other reptiles, W59
0
---
---

Other and unspecified animate mechanical forces, W56, W58, W60, W64
10
29,085,001
374,807

Accidental drowning and submersion, W65-W74
3,306
87,976
1,134

Drowning and submersion while in or falling into bath-tub, W65-W66
332
876,054
11,289

Drowning and submersion while in or falling into swimming-pool, W67-W68
515
564,757
7,278

Drowning and submersion while in or falling into natural water, W69-W70
1,225
237,429
3,060

Other and unspecified drowning and submersion, W73-W74
1,234
235,697
3,037

Other accidental threats to breathing, W75-W84
5,579
52,133
672

Accidental suffocation and strangulation in bed, W75
497
585,211
7,541

Other accidental hanging and strangulation, W76
277
1,050,000
13,531

Threat to breathing due to cave-in, falling earth and other substances, W77
46
6,322,826
81,480

Inhalation of gastric contents, W78
393
740,076
9,537

Inhalation and ingestion of food causing obstruction of respiratory tract, W79
875
332,400
4,284

Inhalation and ingestion of other objects causing obstruction of respiratory tract, W80
3,004
96,821
1,248

Confined to or trapped in a low-oxygen environment, W81
16
18,178,125
234,254

Other and unspecified threats to breathing, W83-W84
471
617,516
7,958

Exposure to electric current, radiation, temperature, and pressure, W85-W99
396
734,470
9,465

Electric transmission lines, W85
96
3,029,688
39,042

Other and unspecified electric current, W86-W87
280
1,038,750
13,386

Radiation, W88-W91
0
---
---

Excessive heat or cold of man-made origin, W92-W93
10
29,085,001
374,807

High and low air pressure and changes in air pressure, W94
10
29,085,001
374,807

Other and unspecified man-made environmental factors, W99
0
---
---

Exposure to smoke, fire and flames, X00-X09
3,369
86,331
1,113

Uncontrolled fire in building or structure, X00
2,761
105,342
1,358

Uncontrolled fire not in building or structure, X01
57
5,102,632
65,756

Controlled fire in building or structure, X02
35
8,310,000
107,088

Controlled fire not in building or structure, X03
39
7,457,692
96,104

Ignition of highly flammable material, X04
55
5,288,182
68,147

Ignition or melting of nightwear, X05
3
96,950,002
1,249,356

Ignition or melting of other clothing and apparel, X06
104
2,796,635
36,039

Other and unspecified smoke fire and flames, X08-X09
315
923,333
11,899

Contact with heat and hot substances, X10-X19
88
3,305,114
42,592

Contact with hot tap-water, X11
26
11,186,539
144,156

Other and unspecified heat and hot substances, X10, X12-X19
62
4,691,129
60,453

Contact with venomous animals and plants, X20-X29
94
3,094,149
39,873

Contact with venomous snakes and lizards, X20
2
145,425,003
1,874,034

Contact with venomous spiders, X21
8
36,356,251
468,508

Contact with hornets, wasps and bees, X23
66
4,406,818
56,789

Contact with other and unspecified venomous animal or plant, X22, X24-X29
18
16,158,334
208,226

Exposure to forces of nature, X30-X39
1,140
255,132
3,288

Exposure to excessive natural heat, X30
273
1,065,385
13,729

Exposure to excessive natural cold, X31
620
469,113
6,045

Lightning, X33
47
6,188,298
79,746

Earthquake and other earth movements, X34-X36
32
9,089,063
117,127

Cataclysmic storm, X37
75
3,878,000
49,974

Flood, X38
26
11,186,539
144,156

Exposure to other and unspecified forces of nature, X32, X39
67
4,341,045
55,941

Accidental poisoning by and exposure to noxious substances, X40-X49
19,457
14,948
193

Nonopioid analgesics, antipyretics, and antirheumatics, X40
210
1,385,000
17,848

Antiepileptic, sedative-hypnotic, antiparkinsonism, and psychotropic drugs n.e.c., X41
1,205
241,369
3,110

Narcotics and psychodysleptics [hallucinogens] n.e.c., X42
9,231
31,508
406

Other and unspecified drugs, medicaments, and biologicals, X43-X44
7,648
38,030
490

Alcohol, X45
373
779,759
10,048

Gases and vapours, X46-X47
690
421,522
5,432

Other and unspecified chemicals and noxious substances, X48-X49
100
2,908,500
37,481

Overexertion, travel and privation, X50-X57
48
6,059,375
78,085

Accidental exposure to other and unspecified factors and sequelae, X58-X59, Y86
7,671
37,916
489
Intentional self-harm, X60-X84, Y87.0, *U03
31,484
9,238
119

Intentional self-poisoning, X60-X69
5,462
53,250
686

Intentional self-harm by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation, X70
6,635
43,836
565

Intentional self-harm by firearm, X72-X74
16,907
17,203
222

Other and unspecified means and sequelae, X71, X75-X84, Y87.0, *U03
2,480
117,278
1,511
Assault, X85-Y09, Y87.1, *U01
17,732
16,403
211

Assault by firearm, X93-X95
11,920
24,400
314

Assault by sharp object, X99
2,049
141,947
1,829

Other and unspecified means and sequelae, X85-X92, X96-X98, Y00-Y09, Y87.1, *U01
3,763
77,292
996
Event of undetermined intent, Y10-Y34, Y87.2, Y89.9
5,072
57,344
739

Poisoning, Y10-Y19
3,700
78,608
1,013

Hanging, strangulation, and suffocation, Y20
108
2,693,056
34,704

Drowning and submersion, Y21
215
1,352,791
17,433

Firearm discharge, Y22-Y24
232
1,253,664
16,155

Exposure to smoke, fire, and flames, Y26
100
2,908,500
37,481

Falling, jumping, or pushed from a high place, Y30
77
3,777,273
48,676

Other and unspecified means and sequelae, Y25, Y27-Y29, Y31-Y34,Y87.2, Y89.9
640
454,453
5,856
Legal intervention, Y35, Y89.0
423
687,589
8,861

Legal intervention involving firearm discharge, Y35.0
347
838,184
10,801

Legal execution, Y35.5
60
4,847,500
62,468

Other and unspecified means and sequelae, Y35.1-Y35.4, Y35.6-Y35.7, Y89.0
16
18,178,125
234,254
Operations of war and sequelae, Y36, Y89.1
14
20,775,000
267,719
Complications of medical and surgical care and sequelae, Y40-Y84, Y88.0-Y88.3










Lo chusco:
Buscando por la red llegue a un artículo de un periodista que lanza cifras y probabilidades y operaciones matematicas. Acebera que es muy dicifil sacarse un premio de esos de televisa, lo cual le creo. Pero lo interesante es como un hombre que no es de números entra a ese maravilloso mundo, la caga. A menos de que el señor sea un matemático brillante que este mas allá de mi comprensión, la caga. Le dedique un rato a tratar de entender sus operaciones y ellas no arrojan nada, pero nada lógico. Lo que esta en negrillas es lo que menciono en este párrafo.

"Las probabilidades para ganar el premio mayor en cualquiera de los concursos que promueve la televisión abierta son mucho menores que para ganar el premio mayor de la Lotería Nacional (uno en 50 mil), pues aun bajo el supuesto de que las llamadas a la televisora sean inferiores a esa cifra, suele haber otro filtro (el concurso al aire, donde predomina el azar) que reduce aún más las posibilidades. En el caso del millón de pesos que ofreció Televisa para la Copa América, si el número de llamadas superaba las ocho mil, las probabilidades de ganar eran inferiores a las de ganar en Melate (7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 probabilidades entre ocho mil x 13 x 12 x 11 x 10 x 9 x 8 x 7; es decir, 5,040/ 69,189,120,000, aproximadamente un chance en 14 millones)."(sic)

http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm
http://www.microsiervos.com/archivo/mundoreal/probabilidades-morir.html

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